The NHS is collapsing. These figures prove it

Twelve-hour A&E waits are at a record high. Doctors fear that tens of thousands will die because of delays in treatment. Already some 10,000 people have waited more than three months for urgent cancer treatment, a consequence of turning the NHS into the national Covid-but-nothing-else-service during lockdown. 

Excess deaths at home, the number of people dying above the five-year average, is nearly 17,000 in England and Wales. Meanwhile, fewer people seem to be dying in hospital. That suggests many patients aren’t even getting proper medical attention.

We’re used to hearing about NHS crises in winter, but winter now seems to be all year round. The extra cash pumped in by the tories – a 17 per cent increase in real terms since the start of the pandemic – is showing limited effect. But what about the other metrics in today’s NHS data release:

1. A&E activity has fallen  

Some 2.1 million people attended A&E last month, 20,000 fewer than June and about where it was for most of 2019. Despite this, A&E waiting times are getting much worse: 29,000 people are waiting more than 12 hours to be treated, up from 22,000 last month. That’s the worst figure ever recorded – and it’s summer. Why are things so challenging if A&E volumes are back to normal levels?

2. A&E troubles are affecting ambulance services

In July, ambulances responded to more than 85,000 Category 1 calls (an immediate threat to life, a heart attack or a sudden lack of breath). That’s two-thirds higher than July 2020 and the highest figure ever recorded. Waiting times rose to nearly ten minutes – again the longest waits on record. Category 2 response times (a stroke or chest pains) rose from 52 minutes in June to just under an hour, a level they haven’t been at since the winter:

3. More people are waiting over a year for treatment

The figure rose by a further 24,000 to 356,000, more than 5 per cent of all patients. This is already 100,000 above privately projected levels – leaked to The Spectator back in February – which were predicated on the notion that Omicron would be mild (as was the case). The total number of people waiting for hospital treatment for any length of time reached 6.7 million – up 120,000 in a month, in line with forecasts and on course for over nine million by the general election. There was slightly better news for those waiting the longest: two-year delays have nearly been eradicated while there was a drop of almost one third for those waiting a year and a half.

4. Cancer diagnoses are getting worse

Cancer diagnoses have their own target: 75 per cent of patients either have their cancer confirmed or get the all-clear within 28 days. The actual figure is now 70 per cent, the lowest level since January. The 28-day cancer diagnosis target hasn’t been met for the thirteenth month running.

These NHS statistics have real consequences. Each of these figures represents thousands of stories of human suffering. But it’s also having an effect on the economy: ONS figures reveal some 55 per cent of those not in work and not looking for work cite long-term sickness. Meanwhile, there are a near-record 1.3 million job vacancies across the country. 

More serious than ill health’s drag on our stagnating economy are excess deaths. Across Britain, thousands more people have died than would be expected in an average year. No one knows why and no one in government seems all that bothered. The ONS estimates the recent heatwave contributed to around 1,700 extra deaths in a single week, but the problem has been present since the start of the year. Last week's deaths were some 18 per cent higher than average. 

It’s taking patients longer to get to hospital and longer to get treatment – even after record funding for the NHS. Those who can are being driven to private providers, who are seeing record enquiries. For everyone else, the fact these figures cover the hot summer months, when respiratory viruses are most subdued, is worrying. Just how bad will winter get?