The irrational cruelty of the SNP’s nationalism

They can't build a ferry, organise a census or keep the railways operating, but when it comes to organising a grievance campaign, nobody does it better than the SNP. This week saw perhaps the most impressive effort yet from team grievance as the SNP tried to turn the Chancellor's announcement of a windfall tax on big oil companies into a Scotland-versus-the-rest-of-the-UK bun fight. Speaking on Sunday, SNP MP Kirsty Blackman complained: 

“It feels very unfair that Scotland is having to pay for the entirety of the UK. If Scotland was an independent country, the windfall tax would generate £1,800 for every household in Scotland.

With most of the UK's oil assets sitting in Scottish waters, the SNP argues that Scotland is now paying the price of alleviating the cost of living crisis for people across the UK. Blackman would rather an independent Scotland kept that cash to itself.

Take a moment to contemplate that. The Treasury estimates the energy profits levy will raise £5 billion this year as part of an overall £15 billion support package. It will mean every household in the UK will get a £400 energy bill discount, and eight million families on means-tested benefits will be paid an additional £650. The Institute for Fiscal Studies estimates that a full-time minimum wage worker (on around £16,200) will now be about £340 better off this year, after adjusting for inflation, compared with last year. An out-of-work single parent home-owner with two children will now see their inflation-adjusted income stay approximately the same this year as last.

Welcoming the windfall tax but pointing out that support should have been in place much earlier and does not go far enough would have been reasonable. Pointing out that it should have been designed to raise even more cash from big oil companies, or that putting money into peoples’ pockets with one hand while removing it with the other through tax hikes is counterintuitive, would have been a fair comment. To insist, however, that only people in Scotland deserve to benefit from a levy designed to stop families from having to choose between heating and eating takes the SNP's ‘us first’ attitude to a new level of selfishness.

How dare that money be used to keep a child on a council estate in Liverpool fed and warm this winter when rich people in Scotland could have their fuel bills subsidised to an even greater extent.

There are times in history when nationalism has been an emancipating force, used to free people from oppression and tyranny. Scottish nationalism seeks to liberate Scots from their humanity. The SNP can use words like ‘outward looking’ and ‘progressive’ all it likes, but every now and again the party's mask slips to reveal its true nature.

Besides, the SNP’s argument does not stand to reason. By any measure, Scotland gains financially from being in the UK. The Scottish government's own Government Expenditure & Revenue Scotland numbers demonstrate an implied fiscal transfer between the rest of the UK and Scotland of around £12 billion per year. That is around £2,200 for every man, woman and child in Scotland.

It is also worth looking at how spending in Scotland rose automatically in response to the pandemic. Total public sector expenditure in Scotland jumped from around £82 billion in 2019-20 to almost £100 billion in 2020-21 as vaccines, furlough and the rest of the government's response to the emergency was put in place. If Scotland had voted to leave the UK in 2014, hence cutting itself off from its UK Treasury and central bank in 2016, this level of support for people and the economy would not have been possible.

With revenues from the North Sea set to pour into the Treasury again, the SNP will be tempted to reconsider the anti-oil and gas stance it adopted around the time of COP26 – indeed, the Blackman interview implies a re-evaluation away from concern for the climate emergency. Assuming ongoing large tax receipts from oil and gas companies would be a mistake, however. The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates oil and tax revenues will leap to a peak in 2022-23 but then fall back just as sharply in 2023-24, in reflection of falls in oil and gas prices predicted by futures markets. Declining oil and gas production will also reduce tax receipts.

The fiscal transfer of £12 billion per annum stems from higher levels of government spending per head in Scotland. It happens year in, year out, regardless of oil price volatility. It is the ultimate safety net for Scotland. It is neither a windfall nor unjust. It is the normal outcome of mutualised compassion. Kirsty Blackman and her party despise that compassion. They insist it must be brought to an end. If they ever succeed, it will not be struggling families in Liverpool that will suffer as a result, it will be struggling families in Glasgow and Dundee.