William Nattrass | The Spectator columnists & writers

Hungary’s ‘patriotic fight’ with the EU: an interview with justice minister Judit Varga

Budapest is racked with tension. As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sends a stream of refugees to Hungary’s eastern border, Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has scrambled to respond to the humanitarian crisis while turning his back on his previous pragmatic relationship with Moscow. Fidesz’s unequivocal condemnation of Vladimir Putin’s actions will have come as a relief to Brussels. But a bitter argument still rages over Hungary's opposition to the bloc’s new ‘rule of law’ budget mechanism, which allows EU funds to be made dependent on adherence to legal and democratic norms. When the European Court of Justice rejected a challenge to the mechanism from Hungary and Poland on February 16, Hungary’s struggle with the bloc ratcheted up a notch.

The crisis in Ukraine is strengthening the EU

The EU has a knack for turning a crisis into an opportunity. The Eurozone crisis led to the centralisation of economic powers in Brussels; Brexit consolidated the Franco-German push for EU integration; and Covid became the pretext for EU funds being made dependent on members adhering to the ‘rule of law’ for the first time. It's looking likely that the bloc will repeat this trick with the war in Ukraine. Prior to Russia’s invasion, the EU was being mocked for its divisions: on Russian gas dependency, on proposed economic sanctions, and on political links with the Kremlin. Now, the bloc is trumpeting its unity. And it has been remarkable to watch member states tear long-held national foreign policy priorities to shreds for the sake of a common stance on Ukraine.

Hungary is standing by the EU on Ukraine

Thursday marked the beginning of a new era in European politics. Nowhere has Russia’s invasion of Ukraine been met with greater fear and trepidation than in central and eastern Europe, a region all too familiar with ‘brotherly help’ in the form of military occupation by a looming eastern power. It may be a new era for Europe, but some things never change. In Hungary, which shares an 80-mile border with Ukraine, a tense atmosphere is laced with disbelief at the West’s ongoing portrayal of the country as a dubious ally threatening to sink EU sanctions. It’s become a cliché of western analyses that Hungary is constantly looking to throw a spanner in the works of a joint EU response. After Russia formally recognised the Donetsk and Luhansk regions as independent states on Monday, baseless rumours circulated that Hungary was considering vetoing the EU’s sanctions package.

The EU is pushing Hungary and Poland to the brink

Storm clouds looming over the EU’s ‘rule of law’ dispute turned a shade darker on Wednesday. The European Court of Justice rejected challenges from Hungary and Poland against a controversial budget mechanism linking adherence to democracy and EU funding. In an indication of the significance of the ruling for the bloc’s future, the verdict was the first ever to be broadcast live from the court. The European Commission will now come under intense pressure to apply the rule of law mechanism and withhold long-term budget funds for Hungary and Poland, along with the pandemic recovery funds it has already refused to hand over to those states. But the escalation of the conflict will also change the political landscape in Hungary and Poland, making the looming elections even more crucial for those countries’ continued membership of the EU.

Could Viktor Orbán be a peacemaker in Ukraine?

For a politician whose calling card is the struggle for Hungarian national sovereignty, Viktor Orbán and Vladimir Putin’s press conference on Tuesday didn’t look good for the Hungarian leader. Putin abruptly walked off the stage, brusquely beckoning Orbán to follow. The Hungarian strongman dutifully picked up his papers and traipsed across the large, socially distanced podium all alone, apparently flummoxed by whether or not to button up his suit jacket. The unfortunate clip makes Orbán look every inch Putin’s puppet – quite the turnaround for a politician who made his name campaigning against Hungary’s lack of independence as a Soviet satellite state in the dying days of the Cold War. And as if to confirm the image of Orban as a lone stooge of Putin while the West stands by Ukraine, a simultaneous meeting took place between his long-time Eurosceptic ally, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, and the Ukrainian President in Kyiv.

Can the Czech Republic challenge Europe’s vaccine orthodoxy?

The Omicron wave has left European counties standing at a crossroads this year. Despite the relative mildness of Omicron compared to previous variants, several countries have stormed ahead with harsher measures to protect their populations from the virus. In Austria, for example, a vaccine mandate will come into effect on Tuesday, and until last week the unvaccinated had been confined to their homes for over two months. Germany is considering following Austria’s lead and introducing a vaccine mandate too. But other countries are starting to see this less deadly wave as an opportunity to restore normality to society, and are now backing away from some of their more extreme Covid measures. In this it could well be that the Czech Republic leads the way in challenging central Europe’s vaccine and lockdown orthodoxy.

Eastern Europe’s toxic relationship with Russia has left the EU divided

Joe Biden’s fatalistic statement this week that suggested a ‘minor incursion’ by Russia into Ukraine might be tolerated by the United States was only the latest indictment of the West’s failings when it comes to holding off Vladimir Putin. Less remarked on was Emmanuel Macron’s futile call in the European Parliament the same day for Europeans to ‘collectively make our own demands and put ourselves in a position to enforce them.’ The French President’s vision for the EU as a ‘power of the future’ hinges on member states holding a common position when it comes to international threats. But reports this week about the EU’s conflicted attitudes towards Russia are now demonstrating the impossibility of the bloc ever becoming a foreign policy force to be reckoned with.

The attempt to oust Viktor Orbán is falling apart

This week it was confirmed that a Hungarian general election – framed as a referendum on Viktor Orbán’s leadership – will take place on April 3. As the campaigning descends into acrimony and with cracks appearing in the previously smooth facade of the country’s United Opposition, Orbán – the Fidesz leader and scourge of Brussels bureaucrats – is gaining ground. When a group of six opposition parties banded together to elect the conservative small-town mayor Péter Márki-Zay as their joint prime ministerial candidate in October to take on Orbán, the race was neck-and-neck. But Orbán has since managed to prosper by using ‘divide and conquer’ campaign tactics highlighting the ideological divisions and personal grievances of the opposition.

Eastern Europe is paying for the EU’s climate revolution

Europe’s energy crisis shows little sign of abating. After Germany this week withheld approval for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline over fears that it could be used as a political weapon by Russia, benchmark gas prices spiked by 10 per cent across Europe, coming close to all-time highs set earlier this autumn. Some energy traders had hoped that the first supplies arriving through the controversial pipeline would help alleviate pressures this winter, but on Thursday the president of Germany’s energy regulator played this down, warning that approval for Nord Stream 2 cannot be expected in the first half of next year. And as the prospect of relief from the East fades, cracks are starting to emerge in the EU’s wider energy policy, with rumblings of discontent growing in central and eastern Europe about the role which the EU’s climate strategy might be playing in the dire state of affairs.

Poland’s abortion culture war is a battle for the country’s soul

This week it emerged that a hospital in the city of Białystok in Poland refused to grant an abortion to a pregnant woman, even though her baby had no chance of survival. The abortion was requested because of the woman’s psychological state after learning about the foetus’s prospects. Although two psychiatrists confirmed she had severe depression, the hospital said this did not meet the level of risk required for an abortion under Polish law, after a ruling by the Polish Constitutional Tribunal last year made it illegal for doctors to carry out abortions unless a woman’s life is at risk or if the pregnancy is the result rape or incest. Overnight, the woman’s case became the latest flashpoint in a fierce debate raging in Poland over the country’s strict abortion laws and the role of faith in Polish politics.

Lockdown resentment is growing in Europe

'Traitors to the nation,' read placards carried by protestors in Prague this week, depicting government figures who have imposed new lockdown restrictions on the unvaccinated. Anger has been bubbling under the surface in eastern and central Europe. But as new lockdowns are imposed and governments consider making vaccines compulsory, this resentment is now threatening to burst out into the open. Czech protests have been mild compared to the unrest seen in other European countries. Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte described recent riots in Rotterdam as 'pure violence,' with police firing warning shots at protestors and inflicting multiple injuries. In Brussels, tear gas and water cannons were used to contain a 35,000-strong protest which turned violent.

How lockdowns for the unvaccinated swept across central Europe

What began in Austria has spread to Germany, then the Czech Republic and now Slovakia. Lockdowns for the unvaccinated are sweeping across central Europe, with Austria now declaring that vaccinations will be made compulsory in the country. Why did these extreme lockdowns become so popular in central Europe? Part of the reason is that the region is at the epicentre of the global pandemic. But in trying to protect their healthcare systems, these countries are essentially creating two-tier societies – which are likely to become the perfect breeding ground for bitterness and resentment. When Austria imposed Europe’s first lockdown for the unvaccinated at the start of this week, few in the Czech Republic foresaw similar measures arriving so soon in their own country.

Meet Tomio Okamura, the Czech Republic’s answer to Nigel Farage

For a brief period during last month’s Czech election campaign it seemed like the country was heading toward a Czexit referendum. Prime Minister Andrej Babis was desperately looking for a coalition partner and the Eurosceptic Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) party had insisted on a referendum as part of any deal. In the end, the Czech PM couldn’t scrape together a majority, meaning a pro-EU coalition will take over this month. But it was still nothing short of remarkable for the country to come so close to holding a referendum on its EU membership. The leader of the SPD, Tomio Okamura, was the key figure behind this push for an EU referendum. And while the latest election represents a setback for the Czech Eurosceptic movement, it’s becoming increasingly clear that the story isn’t over for this most colourful and eccentric politician, who may well be the Czech Republic’s answer to Nigel Farage.

Poland’s Belarusian border conflict is becoming violent

The EU’s conflict with Belarus is heating up. The simmering migrant crisis on the Polish border with Belarus exploded into a new level of intensity on Monday, as large groups of migrants marched through Belarus towards Poland before attempting to storm barbed wire fences and force their way into the Schengen zone. The Polish government responded to the violation of its border with military force. Twelve thousand troops are now being deployed along the border. When migrants managed to break a section of the fence near Kuznica on Monday, a rank of Polish soldiers filled the gap as a military helicopter flew low overhead in an attempt to deter the febrile group, which was chanting ‘Germany!’ It’s thought that around 7,000 of the migrants who recently entered Poland subsequently tried to make it to Germany.

The missing president and the Czech Republic’s sordid power struggle

Czech President Miloš Zeman has never been one to do things by halves. His mastery in the art of consuming inordinate quantities of alcohol is the stuff of legend, while his formidable smoking once led another senior politician to complain that he felt like a piece of smoked meat in the president’s presence. Two years ago, at the age of 75, Zeman took the prudent step of cutting down to only two packets of cigarettes a day – leading some to hope that his health might improve. Yet it’s now feared the colourful president’s lifestyle may finally be catching up with him. Zeman was rushed to a central Prague hospital on October 10, the day after a nail-biting Czech election was won by an opposition pro-EU coalition.

The problem with the EU’s messianic treatment of Poland

Mateusz Morawiecki insists his government does not want to take Poland out of the EU. ‘Eighty-eight per cent of Poles are in favour of EU membership and half of these are our (Law and Justice party) voters,’ the Polish Prime Minister told the European Parliament in Strasbourg this week. But Morawiecki didn’t exactly seem committed to the EU on Tuesday when he locked horns in a fiery debate with the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen over Poland’s challenge to the bloc’s legal order. With Morawiecki refusing to back down and von der Leyen assuring MEPs that Brussels would move against controversial Polish legal reforms, it seemed, more than ever, that Polexit really could be on the table. ‘The highest law in the EU is the constitution of a country,’ argued Morawiecki.

Is the European centre collapsing?

There's a growing tension in the European bloc between those unhappy with Brussels’s increasing interventionism and by those who feel the EU does not intervene enough. The biggest casualty in this escalating conflict could well be the centre-right which, until now, has largely held the fractured bloc together. It’s been a tough few weeks for the European People’s Party, the biggest political group in the European parliament. The group is now preparing for the departure of its long-time talisman Angela Merkel from frontline politics. Merkel’s CDU was the bedrock of the EPP, but now it appears that Germany will be run by the Social Democrats, who are members of the overtly integrationist Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats in the European parliament.

The EU was the big winner in the Czech election

Eurosceptics in central Europe suffered a blow this weekend, as pro-EU coalitions won a slender majority in the Czech parliament. With the nation’s president hospitalised a day after the vote, it is unclear when exactly the new government will assume power. But when they do, Brussels will breathe a deep sigh of relief. SPOLU, a coalition of three parties united by their antipathy towards Czech prime minister Andrej Babiš, won a narrow victory. Together with another coalition comprising the Czech Pirate party – and an alliance of mayors and independents (Pirates+STAN) – groups with a pro-EU bent can now command a slender majority in the Czech parliament. They have already signed a joint statement of intent to form a new government.

Czexit could be closer than we think

Is Czexit closer than we think? Ahead of the Czech general elections in October, the rise of an anti-EU party as a potential kingmaker is making a referendum on EU membership a distinct possibility. ‘No to EU dictates,’ ‘Freedom to think, speak and breathe,‘ ‘Lockdown is not a solution,’ read election posters plastered around Prague by the Czech Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) party. This hard-line anti-EU, anti-immigration, anti-lockdown and vaccine-sceptic movement – which is currently polling at around 12 per cent – may hold the key to power for the ruling ANO party after a hotly contested election campaign. The Czech electoral landscape has turned on its head since the spring. Then, the darkest days of the pandemic seemed to have dealt a death sentence to ANO’s chances of remaining in government.

Donald Tusk is playing a dangerous game in dismissing Polexit

'The British showed that the dictatorship of the Brussels bureaucracy did not suit them and turned around and left.' That's the verdict of the parliamentary head of Poland’s ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party, Ryszard Terlecki, who has once again brought discussions of 'Polexit' to the foreground of Polish politics. Donald Tusk, Poland’s new leader of the opposition, has responded by suggesting this is party politics at work. But he is making a dangerous mistake to dismiss the prospect of a Polish exit from the EU. 'If things go the way they are likely to go, we will have to search for drastic solutions,' said Terlecki on Friday, citing Brexit as an example of a country breaking the mould of EU authority. PiS MP Marek Suski meanwhile compared the EU to twentieth-century totalitarian forces: 'Poland fought against one occupier during world war two, it then fought against the Soviet occupier, and we are now going to fight the Brussels occupier,' he said.

The battle for Eastern Europe’s energy sector

The fight to power eastern Europe is heating up. As Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky prepares to meet Joe Biden at the White House, competition for Ukraine’s energy market is increasingly being framed as a battle between East and West. And as western investments into renewables vie with fossil fuel imports from Russia, the struggle for the nation’s energy supply is assuming a moral dimension reminiscent of the Cold War. Tens of thousands of panels at Ukraine’s huge Nikopol solar farm harvest the sun’s energy for nobody. In late 2019, the Canadian owners of the farm, TIU Canada, were informed that the nearby Nikopol Ferroalloy Plant, owned by the notorious Ukrainian oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky, would be disconnecting their farm from the power grid to make repairs.

Fortress Europe is dreading the Afghan migrant crisis

Fortress Europe is pulling up the drawbridge. The takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban is likely to being about a new wave of refugees heading west, and so walls and fences are being hastily built around the borders of the Schengen Area. As scars inflicted by the last migrant crisis re-open, the possibility of a new influx of refugees is causing deep apprehension throughout the EU. At Usnarz Gorny, on Poland’s border with Belarus, the migrant crisis is already beginning. Twenty four Afghan migrants currently sit stranded in no man’s land between Polish and Belarusian border guards. Left without food or clean drinking water for weeks on end, their situation has become a no-win moral dilemma for the Polish government.

Why Poland’s EU climbdown may help Law and Justice

Dare Poland stand up to the EU? The leader of Poland’s ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party Jaroslaw Kaczynski announced on Saturday that the country’s controversial disciplinary chamber for judges, the subject of a long-running dispute with the bloc over the ‘rule of law’, will be disbanded. The climbdown seems at first glance to be a humiliating defeat for the Polish government in the face of pressure from Brussels. The European Court of Justice gave Poland until 16 August to disband the disciplinary chamber. Politicians in Warsaw say the chamber is a means to root out corruption but the ECJ believes it undermines the independence of the Polish judiciary. With the EU threatening to withhold funds from Poland, the case was an early example of Brussels’s new strategy of frightening misbehaving member states with the prospect of financial punishments.

Belarusians in exile aren’t safe from the iron grip of Lukashenko

This week has laid bare the terrifying situation faced by Belarusians in their home country and abroad. From Tokyo’s Olympic village to the streets of Kiev and the courts of Minsk, the iron grip of president Alexander Lukashenko only seems to be tightening. With athletes joining political opponents and exiled activists in being targeted by the regime, many are now asking the question: where can Belarusians be safe? Certainly not at home. On Wednesday, a behind-closed-doors trial began in Minsk for two opposition figures involved in organising the huge protests which swept Belarus last year following elections widely held to have been fraudulent. Maria Kolesnikova and Maxim Znak have been charged with incitement to undermine national security.

The EU is failing to stand up for eastern Europe

Will the EU stand up for eastern Europe? This question is now being asked by Ukraine following the announcement of a deal between Germany and the USA which paves the way for the completion of the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Russia and western Europe. The deal reached by Merkel and Biden may have placated critics in Washington, but it has failed to allay eastern European concerns over the security implications of the project. The state most affected by Nord Stream 2, Ukraine, has now requested urgent consultations with the European Commission and the German government, adding an air of legal weight to its complaints by invoking provisions of its ‘Association Agreement’ with the EU. It suggests that by taking negotiations with the Biden administration into its own hands, the German government violated the EU’s requirement for ‘solidarity’ on potential energy crisis situations.

Why the Pegasus spying scandal probably won’t harm Viktor Orban

‘The EU has a dictatorship growing inside of it,’ proclaimed Guy Verhofstadt on Monday afternoon, while calling for an EU inquiry into the ‘Pegasus’ scandal, which has exposed the potential Hungarian misuse of state surveillance on anti-government journalists, media owners and businesspeople. The ‘Pegasus Project’, a multinational investigation led by the French non-profit organisation Forbidden Stories, suggests that investigative journalists critical of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s regime (along with independent media owners and government-critical businesspeople) were the subject of phone hacking in recent years. The Pegasus software, marketed to international governments by the NSO Group, an Israeli company, is capable of recording phone calls, accessing private messages, and switching on a device’s video and microphone without permission.

The EU is stoking the culture war between East and West

Other EU countries ‘should not interfere in the affairs of Hungary,’ Czech president Miloš Zeman said on Sunday in support of Viktor Orbán’s controversial new anti-LGBT reforms. As international condemnation of the country's new LGBT law mounts, Zeman threw his weight behind the Hungarian prime minister, saying he ‘can see no reason to disagree with him’ in his stance on LGBT rights. The Czech president’s words came as the latest blow in the EU’s increasingly bitter culture war between west and east, with blame for the confrontational environment being placed by Brussels on rebel nations such as Hungary and its Visegrád Four ally Poland. Yet the EU is, in fact, now reaping the whirlwind for having introduced a ‘rule of law’ budget instrument which aims to punish non-conformity with its own legal, ethical and cultural norms.

Viktor Orbán goes to war on the European parliament

‘Times have changed, and whereas thirty years ago we believed Europe was our future, today we understand that we are Europe’s future’. Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán has never been one to shy away from controversy when it comes to the European Union. But on Hungarian Independence Day on Monday, he went a step further by presenting an alternative vision for the bloc. Orbán's plan involves a major restructuring of the European parliament, which he described as a ‘dead-end’ for democracy. He wants to fix the EU’s democratic deficit by building a ‘democracy of democracies based on European nations’. In practice, this would mean a reformed European parliament consisting of delegates from national parliaments, replacing the direct election of MEPs.

How a Polish coal mine risks derailing the EU’s climate strategy

Cracks are appearing in the EU’s climate strategy. An international dispute over the court-ordered closure of a coal mine on the Poland-Czech Republic border has thrown divisions over how to phase out fossil fuels into sharp relief, leading to the first ever environment-related lawsuit between two EU member states. The Czech Republic has taken Poland to the European Court of Justice to oppose the extension of a licence for the Turów coal mine on Poland’s south-western border with the Czech Republic and Germany. The Czech government said that continued operations at the mine constitute a risk to the health of Czechs living nearby due to air pollution and reduced groundwater supplies. The ECJ upheld the Czech complaint and ordered Poland to immediately cease operations at the mine.