Will the autumn statement break the Tory truce?

It's crunch day for Rishi Sunak. This morning his Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will stand at the despatch box and unveil a mix of spending cuts and tax rises worth in the region of £55 billion in a bid to fill the fiscal black hole in the public finances. Hunt is expected to tell MPs his fiscal plan will help Britain 'face into the storm' by being 'honest about the challenges, and fair in our solutions' to inflation and rising energy prices. 

The measures Sunak and Hunt are expected to pitch as the best response to the global financial situation – as well as the fallout from Liz Truss's not-so-mini-Budget which spooked the markets – include stealth raids on income tax, national insurance, pension savings and VAT. A potential council tax rise is also on the cards – with reports that local authorities will be allowed to increase council tax by 5 per cent without a local referendum. There could also be an extension of the current windfall tax on energy companies.

As for the cuts – expected to be to the tune of around £30 billion – they will be spread across departments. However, much of this will be planned for after the next election. This raises the question of whether they will ever happen – either due to a better economic outlook meaning they can be cancelled at a later date or a new party entering government and charting a different path.

So, what are the risks today? As Kate Andrews details in this week's Spectator cover piece, this new form of 'Austerity 2.0' will be the theme of the Sunak years. It also raises the question of how the government can boost growth when many of the measures will have the opposite effect. But there's also the question of whether chunks of the Tory party will wear it. When Sunak took over following Liz Truss's resignation in the wake of the fallout from her failed attempt to slash taxes across the board, there was an uneasy truce among Tory MPs. MPs across the party called for unity after months of feuding and blue on blue warfare – warning that a failure to do so risked an early election and a decade in opposition.

Since then, it hasn't been plain sailing, with internal rows breaking out over Sunak's ministerial appointments of Suella Braverman, Gavin Williamson (who has since resigned) and Dominic Raab. Today is the biggest challenge so far as to whether MPs can unite in the face of difficult decisions. At PMQs, former cabinet minister Esther McVey said she would only back tax rises if vanity projects like HS2 were ditched. Over the weekend, former Levelling Up Secretary Simon Clarke suggested the vast majority of the savings should be from spending cuts not tax rises. Former chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng has also warned against mass tax rises – playing down the damage from his not-so-mini Budget. 

It means that Hunt and Sunak have a delicate balancing act to do today. The reshuffle was part designed to draw potential rebels – such as Andrew Mitchell, Huw Merriman and Rob Halfon – into the tent to help consult and then front the tricky package rather than oppose