Is Labour taking its eye off the Oldham West and Royton by-election? Next week, the party will be focused on whether it will back bombing Syria, but the by-election following the death of Michael Meacher is also being held on Thursday. Today’s papers are full of headlines proclaiming Labour is at war with itself, so you can understand this statement from Corbyn's office:
“‘Regrettably Jeremy Corbyn is not now visiting Oldham because matters to do with Syria mean he must return to London’
As Isabel has been reporting over the past few weeks, jitters are growing about whether Labour is doing enough to stem the flow of working class voters to Ukip. It is tricky to judge how the race is going for both parties, given that there is no constituency-level polling. The bookies still has Labour as the favourite to win — Ukip is on 3/1 — but this interesting account has appeared on reddit from a campaigner in Oldham West offers another perspective. This is their conclusion on how Labour and Ukip are doing:
“‘Labour have huge problems with their working class vote from what I have seen. These results were essentially reflected across the board by the 100 other campaigners over the last 2 weeks. Ukip is more popular than Farage though very few actively dislike him. But Corbyn has completely turned off his vote.
'Ukip are still going to struggle because near 30% (south east Asian electorate) actively dislike Ukip and are certain to vote Labour if they come out to vote. Ukip will win comfortably in Royton South...the question really is, whether the south east Asian vote turns out. If they do and Ukip fail to turn 30-40% of the Tories, Ukip won't gain more than 35% and will lose.
'It all depends on the turnout, but in my honest opinion, at 3/1 it represents a ridiculous value for money as I'd put them both at evens. Ukip can win here, they are getting a very warm welcome and Corbyn is destroying his core vote.'
If this account is at all reflective of what is going on in Oldham West, there is a chance Team Corbyn may have realised he'd do better to stay in London. If the Labour infighting continues to dominate the headlines next week and the party is thrown into further turmoil, Ukip will do their utmost to make this by-election a referendum on Corbyn's leadership — something the Labour campaigners in Oldham West are very keen to avoid.