‘The ultimate death match’: Will it be Boris vs Rishi?

It will take 100 MP nominations to qualify for the next Tory leadership race and the clock is ticking – with Boris Johnson out in front with 51 supporters so far. Rishi Sunak has 44 and Penny Mordaunt 20. It will go to the membership for a swift decision unless the finalists come to a gentleman’s agreement. So how will it unfold?

I set out four scenarios of how this might unfold in The Spectator earlier this month. There are two that MPs have most recently got in touch about: Rishi by Christmas or the Boris restoration.

A week is a long time in politics – and next week could be one of the most dramatic yet.

Let’s start with the first. Sunak, who was runner-up in the last leadership contest, has been notably quiet as the Truss premiership unravelled. His supporters said that his reason for missing party conference was to let her ‘own the moment’. Could Sunak conclude it’s his turn now? His name comes up regularly among MPs trying to work out who might be best placed to clean up the current mess.

As his supporters are all too willing to point out, he predicted and warned about a lot of the things that happened during the short-lived Truss premiership – from rising mortgage rates (his campaign ran this calculator) as well as a run on the pound. The tricky economic situation the country finds itself in means there are MPs who didn’t back Sunak last time who think he could be the right person for this moment. But the biggest criticism Sunak receives when MPs discuss his prospects is party unity. There are still Johnson loyalists who blame the former chancellor for his downfall. This has spread to parts of the grassroots. MPs such as Nadine Dorries and Jacob Rees-Mogg would probably make life very difficult for Sunak, were he to walk into No. 10. The fact the final two could go to the membership means that this could work against Sunak – depending on who he is up against.

Step forward Boris Johnson. The former prime minister is reported by the Times to be taking soundings about throwing his hat into the ring. A few MPs have already come forward to call for his return – Paul Bristow told Sky News that the strong message he has received from his constituents is ‘Bring back Boris’. Other supporters such as Dorries have said Johnson is the only option that avoids the need for a general election – given he already has a mandate from the 2019 election. It’s true, too, that Johnson’s absence has led some MPs to think back on his time more positively. There are One Nation MPs who praise his campaigning skills. He’s also the person who the party goes to in a crisis – unless, of course, he is the cause of it. Yet Truss’s departure is so soon after Johnson’s that for many MPs, the wounds are still rather raw. One former cabinet minister says it would be ludicrous to vote him back in after quitting their role only months ago to oust him.

If the final was Sunak vs Johnson, it’s hard to see any gentleman’s agreement where the other promises the runner up a senior role so as to avoid going to the membership. ‘It would be the ultimate death match,’ predicts one Tory MP. Johnson has little love for Sunak. Supporters of Sunak are already worried that even if he emerged as the frontrunner and won some unlikely backers, Johnson would run just to stop him. A week is a long time in politics – and next week could be one of the most dramatic yet.