The Scottish Tories have been given a drubbing

The Scottish Tories have suffered a meltdown in the local elections. The party, which came second in 2017, looks set to poll far behind Scottish Labour, marking an ignominious return to third place. Labour’s Scottish leader Anas Sarwar has seemingly made Unionist politics competitive once again.

So, what happened? Boris happened. Specifically, partygate. The public’s fury was always going to burn the Scottish Tories but there was a moment when it looked like the party would insulate itself. Back in December, Scottish leader Douglas Ross drew a clear line, saying the Prime Minister should resign if he misled parliament. When it emerged in January that Boris had attended a party himself, Ross stood firm: the PM had to go. For his troubles, he was branded ‘a lightweight figure’ by Jacob Rees-Mogg, an assessment the Prime Minister did not demur from when given the opportunity.

Then, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Ross withdrew his letter to the 1922 Committee, on the grounds that the PM’s position shouldn’t be in doubt at such a critical moment. Fair enough, but how likely was it that any Tory MP who hadn’t put their letter in before March would suddenly lose confidence at the point when all of parliament was united behind the PM’s stand on Ukraine?

When asked, all Ross had to say was that he had made his views known and had not changed them but that war had broken out in mainland Europe and, like politicians across the spectrum, he understood the priority now was supporting Ukraine and standing up to Putin. It was a needless, senseless, self-inflicted injury on his part.

The local elections were all about Boris. That was the SNP’s campaign slogan: ‘Send Boris a message’. That dynamic hurt the Tories with voters who would never dream of voting SNP but who had seen how ineffectual Ross was at standing up to the Prime Minister. Some of these electors likely stayed home. Then there’s the Sarwar factor. Scottish Labour has its most impressive leader in many years in Anas Sarwar. He’s a Labour moderate, anti-independence and boasts a combative, media-friendly style that plainly irritates Nicola Sturgeon.

Scottish Labour voters who are older, working-class, anti-independence and anti-Sturgeon – the sort of people who have been lending the Tories their vote since 2016 – now have a credible leader (if not yet a credible party) to vote for. That is the question concentrating Scottish Tory minds right now. Have ‘Ruth Davidson Tories’ returned to the Labour fold for good?

There will be speculation about Douglas Ross’s future, but that is premature. This time last year he led the Tories to their best ever showing in a Scottish parliament election. A lousy local election result is bad news but it surely doesn’t outweigh a strong performance where it matters most just 12 months ago. Ross has had a rotten run of luck between the pandemic, Boris and partygate, all of which have hampered his ability to define himself. Hard lines, you might say, but Ross is the party’s third leader since the 2019 election (after Jackson Carlaw and an interim stint by Davidson). Keep it up with the constant change of leaders and the party will start to look like post-referendum Scottish Labour. Ross’s flip-flopping was damn foolish and has left him looking weak but neither he nor his party has anything to gain by re-spinning the leadership revolving door. The party needs stability and Ross needs to prove that he’s not a lightweight.

Continuing in post, however, must be for a defined purpose. What might that look like? The Scottish Tories could do with a John Swinney, the former SNP leader whose tenure was unhappy and personally unrewarding but who overhauled the party internally. He left Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon a better organised, tighter-disciplined outfit that they turned into an electoral juggernaut.

The Scottish Tories have spent almost a decade now as the ‘no to independence’ party and they sorely require a rethink – and, dare I say it, a review – of strategy, policy, personnel, operations and structures. There are some sharp minds – think Stephen Kerr or Dòmhnall Camshron – who would have a lot to offer this process.

It wouldn’t hurt Ross to give a few speeches wondering aloud about the future of the relationship between the Scottish and UK parties. Not to seriously propose a split at this point but to send a message to CCHQ and Downing Street that the more they trash the Scottish party’s brand, the more appealing a divorce will become.

Electing leaders and pursuing policies unpopular in Scotland, not to mention licensing pinstripe-suited boot boys to go on Newsnight and insult the leader of the Scottish party, comes with consequences. The Scottish Tories can keep absorbing those consequences for only so long.