The recapturing of Snake Island shows what Ukraine can do

After days of missile strikes, Ukrainian forces have forced Russia off Snake Island in the Black Sea. ‘The enemy hastily evacuated the remnants of the garrison in two speedboats and left the island’, according to the Ukrainian Operational South Command. Russia's defence ministry appeared to concede defeat, saying that ‘Russian forces have completed the assigned tasks and withdrew as a step of goodwill’. The retreat is huge news in Ukraine, as Snake Island is not only important strategic territory, but has acquired a cult status as a representation of Ukraine’s resistance.

Snake Island became world famous on the first day of the war when Ukrainian troops broadcast a message saying: ‘‘Russian warship, go fuck yourself’. The subsequent shelling enabled Russia to capture the island on 24 February. But that phrase was soon immortalised and can now be seen on Ukrainian billboards, postage stamps, graffiti and even tattoos.

The island – a relatively small hunk of rock, with no snakes – has taken on symbolic importance but is also militarily useful, given that it can be used as a launchpad for attacks on Ukraine and as a base for Russia to dominate the Black Sea. Control of Snake Island would allow Russians to land in Transnistria (the sliver of Moldova under Russian control since 1990) and take control over Odessa on two fronts – ships through the river and ground forces from Transnistria.

Gennady Trukhanov, mayor of Odessa, said that ‘Snake Island has become a symbol. Control over it gives you control of the situation’. Odessa is Ukraine’s most important port: if Ukraine loses it, it loses access to the whole southern coast. The mines blocking the passage already cripple Ukraine’s economy and also deny the world the grain on which so much of the developed world depends.

While Snake Island is a staging post for Russia, it is also within striking distance of the Ukrainian military. Strike they did: again and again. Russia quickly used it as a weapons base and recently tried to reinforce its position by sending its flagship Moskva missile cruiser. But that was sunk in April by two anti-ship missiles fired from Odessa – the biggest loss suffered by any navy since Argentina lost the Belgrano. It’s hard to overstate the importance that the sinking of Moskva has had on Ukrainian morale.

The onslaught has been relentless and eagerly documented by the Ukrainian military. It published video footage on May 8 of a drone attack on a Russian helicopter hovering above Snake Island.

The Russian army tried to install air defence systems on the island, but constant shelling made that impossible. A recent crowdfunder raised £14 million from public donations in three days to buy four Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones. Remarkably, the privately-owned Turkish company did not accept payment and said it will send three Bayraktar drones free of charge to the Ukrainian war front. ‘We ask that raised funds be remitted instead to the struggling people in Ukraine,’ it said.

The relentless bombardment, and the humiliation of losing the Moskva, convinced Russia that it could no longer hold Snake Island without its hardware being destroyed by relentless Ukrainian attacks.

Another strike of the #UAarmy on the russian troops on Snake Island. The occupiers lost an anti-aircraft system Pantsir (SA-22 Greyhound). The cleaning of our land will continue as long as needed. pic.twitter.com/WpXbUrOICH

— Defence of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 27, 2022

Russian ships still patrol the waters south of the crucial port of Odessa, stopping shipments of grain. But Russia’s retreat is an important corrective to the narrative that Ukraine’s defeat is inevitable.

Russia's defence ministry is portraying its withdrawal as a humanitarian act to promote trade: ‘The world community has been shown that the Russian Federation will not impede the UN efforts to organize a humanitarian corridor for the export of agricultural products from Ukraine. Now Ukraine has to act, which has not yet de-mined the Black Sea coast near its shores, including the harbour waters’.

But if the ports are de-mined, a sea corridor will be created through which Russia may invade Odessa – and if Ukraine loses Odessa, it loses everything. How Ukraine is going to release its grain and protect Odessa at the same time is the question it must answer.