The issue that will win or lose the election for Liz Truss

Nobody knows what they think about Liz Truss. Not literally nobody – those of us with a wholly unusual level of interest in politics of course have our pet theories – but nobody in the sense of the broad sweep of the general public. As Tony Blair noted in his memoirs: 'For most normal people, politics is a distant, occasionally irritating fog.' That is, in fact, a pretty good description of the last month of a Conservative leadership race that tested the appetite for politics of even the nerdiest among us.

Not since John Major’s rapid rise-without-trace to succeed Margaret Thatcher has a new arrival in 10 Downing Street been more of a mystery to voters. So don’t believe polls purporting to know how people will react to her premiership. Everything is up for grabs.

But what Blair also noted was that there are key times when the ordinary voter 'switches on'. 'These are defining moments,' he wrote, 'The trick is to spot them. Missing them is very bad news.'

The next month is certainly such a time. Between kissing hands with the monarch today and delivering her keynote party conference speech on Wednesday 5 October, Truss must introduce herself to that large majority of voters who know next to nothing about her but are feeling pretty scratchy towards her party.

She has the chance to craft a political persona for herself but must take it before her many opponents do the job for her in the most unhelpful terms they can come up with.

Should she be seeking a role model then I’d suggest an iconic character from the 1970s – not Margaret Thatcher but David Bowie’s 'Queen Bitch' who was known not only for ruthlessness but also for straight-talking. As Bowie put it: 'If she says she can do it then she can do it. She don’t make false claims.'

Such a combination of qualities would stand Truss in good stead in comparison to the bland Keir Starmer, levering the single most exceptional thing about her: that she is only the UK’s third female prime minister (out of 56).

Most sensible people realise the country has been on the slide, faces multiple first order problems and needs someone tough and single-minded to put it on the right track. So rather than focus-group and poll every individual issue to death, as Boris Johnson often did, Truss and her media handlers would be better advised just to set a bold course and follow it with determination.

If they believe tax cuts that primarily benefit those on average or above-average incomes and not the poor are what is needed to sharpen incentives and boost economic growth, then brave the squealing that will ensue from the liberal establishment and bring them in. On energy policy – just do it, whatever source of energy the 'it' may involve.

But there is one totemic issue on which Truss simply must produce early results: the utter and disgraceful shambles of the Channel dinghies. With the influx of irregular migrants freeloading on the UK welfare state currently running at 8,000 per month the situation has become a political humiliation that no prime minister’s reputation could withstand. So demoralised and infuriated are Tory-leaning voters by this that Truss needs to declare the situation a national emergency and introduce policies far more radical than anything Johnson ever considered.

An Australian-style principle that nobody arriving illegally will get to stay and all will be removed to offshore camps would involve the UK having to bail out of the European Court of Human Rights and multiple other international agreements and push new legislation through parliament too. It would also kill stone dead the rationale for paying thousands of pounds to people traffickers for a seat on a cross-Channel boat and bring the phenomenon to an end.

It would be an over-simplification to say that if she successfully cushions people from the living standards squeeze and stops the migrant boats then Truss will confound the media consensus and win the next election and that if she doesn’t then she will lose it. But not very much of one.