Sturgeon’s referendum plan could ruin the independence dream

So much for Plan B. Supporters of Scottish independence are putting a brave face on the emphatic ruling by the Supreme Court that – surprise, surprise – the Scottish parliament does not have the power to call a referendum on independence. Lord Reed cast aside the sophistry that ballot would be ‘merely advisory’ — so are all referendums under the UK constitution. And of course a referendum on Scottish independence would ‘relate to' the constitution which is reserved to Westminster.

Sturgeon will now be unable to proceed with her referendum scheduled for October next year – not that anyone serious thought it likely to happen. Why anyone believed that the Supreme Court of the UK would facilitate the break up of the UK is a mystery. This ruling may have been predictable, but it could also have a catastrophic impact on the independence movement, which is already deeply divided. It will also hasten Nicola Sturgeon's departure from politics.

It was Sturgeon who insisted that any referendum had to be 'beyond legal challenge' (in other words, authorised by Westminster though a Section 30 Order). Otherwise it might not be recognised by international bodies like the European Union. Sturgeon has repeatedly ruled out staging a ‘wildcat’ referendum, such as the one staged in Catalonia in 2017 with disastrous results.

But the First Minister is now committed to a route – Plan C in the jargon – which is almost as politically suicidal.

Sturgeon made clear in October that, if the Supreme Court gives her plan for a referendum what nationalists call ‘the bum's rush’, she would turn the 2024 general election into a ‘de facto referendum’ on the single issue of independence. She repeated this in her response to the Supreme Court. The SNP manifesto would thus be a one liner and would constitute, according to the SNP's former constitution spokesman Mike Russell, a mandate for opening negotiations on Scotland leaving the UK.

It would, of course, constitute nothing of the kind. You cannot simply turn a general election into a referendum, as the opposition parties will say loud and clear all the way to polling day. No one political party can dictate to the electorate the issues on which they are permitted to vote. Elections are about a galaxy of issues, but the most important, and what most people in Scotland will be voting on, is who is to be the government in Westminster.

But the de facto route is a double folly because it faces an almost impossible test of success. Sturgeon has said that, to be conclusive, the SNP must win a majority of votes in 2024 — not just a majority of seats, as her deputy, John Swinney, initially suggested. Yet the SNP has never won more than 50 per cent of the vote in any general election. Even in the famous ‘tsunami’ election of 2015, when the SNP won all but three of Scotland's 59 Westminster seats, the popular vote barely reached 50 per cent and on Nicola Sturgeon's terms would have been a failure.

Her entire case for independence rests on her claim that Scotland repeatedly finds itself ruled by ‘governments in Westminster that Scotland did not vote for’ – right back to the days of Margaret Thatcher. However, in 2024 the Scots will actually have the chance to elect a government they would vote for. And many will.

Labour's current double-digit lead in the opinion polls may be inflated by the fallout from the mini-budget, but there seems little doubt that, under Keir Starmer, Labour is looking eminently electable in 2024. So why should Scottish voters back a de facto referendum that has no constitutional significance, when they could actually use their votes to ‘get the Tories out’ of Number Ten? Scotland has traditionally been a Labour-voting country. As recently as the 2010 general election, Labour won 41 Scottish seats against the SNP's 6.

The de facto referendum is such a reckless gamble that it is hard to understand why a First Minster renowned for her caution has staked her political authority on the result. In the run up to the 2024 ballot, the UK parties will rightly insist that the de facto referendum is a stunt. But after the election it'll be a different matter. Then Labour and the Conservatives will claim that the SNP has had its Indyref2 and look: they lost.

That would be two referendums with a negative result. Historians of nationalism can see an obvious parallel here with what happened in Quebec in 1995. Then, a second failed referendum dealt a massive blow to the campaign for independence from Canada from which it has never recovered. Sturgeon's phoney referendum has the potential to wreck the prospects of Scottish independence for a generation. And that is not all.

Sturgeon has come in for much internal criticism for failing to move the dial on independence despite having won huge majorities in recent elections. The nationalists dominate Scottish politics at every level, yet the prospects for secession seem as remote as ever.

After 2024, Sturgeon will likely emulate her predecessor, Alex Salmond, who resigned after the 2014 referendum defeat. She will have done her ten years at the top and has repeatedly said she is looking for a career beyond national politics. That will leave the Scottish independence movement without a plan, without a leader and nae' chance of breaking up Britain.