Scotland’s census has failed

Today is deadline day for Scotland’s census. When threats of £1,000 fines were delayed at the start of this month just 74 per cent had returned their form. It’s now 86 per cent. Better, but far short of the 94 per cent national target. Some 370,000 households are yet to complete it. The target of 85 per cent in all local areas hasn’t been met either. Nicola Sturgeon has admitted the outputs could be unreliable. Academics have also warned the data could be ‘useless’ because of low uptake and extensions to the collection period. The minister responsible - Angus Robertson - jetted off to Brussels this morning.

Why the low return rate? One theory is that unionists are ‘boycotting’ it to make the government look bad. Media coverage has inadvertently undermined it too. But is that true?

The above graph shows that the stronger the Yes vote was in 2014, the lower the census return rate. In the latest data with regional breakdowns Glasgow had the lowest census return rate with a fifth of Glaswegians failing to respond. It also had the third highest yes vote (53 per cent). Dundee, the city where some 57 per cent voted yes - more than anywhere else in Scotland - has the third worst return rate (So it looks like it’s nationalists who aren’t engaging with the census).

But things are never that simple. We mustn’t confuse correlation with causation: just as Nick Cage films don’t really cause pool drownings - peoples’ position on the constitution has nothing to do with whether or not they’ve filled in the census.

Just as there are a multitude of factors why someone might be a yes or no voter, so too are there reasons for low engagement in certain areas. The areas with a low return rate have some of the most deprived postcodes. On the other hand, access to internet is poorer in some areas than others, making a force of door knockers crucial. According to Audit Scotland one of the main reasons for delaying the census a year - and losing out on the UK marketing campaign - was because the estimated 3,500 strong field staff required wouldn’t be able to work during Covid. Why then were only 1,250 recruited in the end?

The census really does matter. When governments plan how many schools to build and where - they use the census. When GPs are allocated to communities - they use the census. When the government allocates funding – they use the census. The areas with the lowest response rates are the worst educated, in the poorest health (there's a seven year life expectancy gap between Shetland and Glasgow) and the most economically deprived areas of Scotland. Planning for services crucial to these areas has been undermined for the next decade.

That the rate hasn’t reached the target 94 per cent, or the 97 per cent achieved in England and Wales has real consequences. Academics say local planning could now be ‘impossible’ due to ‘the absence of reliable data’. Counting the population is one of the most basic duties of any government. Scotland’s has failed miserably.