Will Penny do better than last time?

This afternoon Penny Mordaunt became the first candidate to publicly declare themselves for the leadership of the Conservative party. Much of the talk in this contest has been about the 'death match' between Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak, both of whom are a known quantity in Westminster circles. Mordaunt's confirmed entry into the race changes the dynamics of the contest and offers her colleagues a different choice. She is something of an outsider – having only held a senior cabinet post for less than three months in 2019 – and was never someone in the inner counsels of the Cameron, May, Johnson or Truss premierships.

The threshold of 100 nominations on Monday is a steep one and Mordaunt is currently well behind Sunak and Johnson in the number of confirmed public backers. Yet there are still some likely supporters who have not yet declared, with several vocal supporters in private currently keeping their powder dry. Mordaunt has of course previously shown she can hit that figure of 100 MPs, having won an impressive 105 backers in July in spite of a co-ordinated briefing assault by her in the press. Indeed, if less than half a dozen of her colleagues had switched back then from Truss to Mordaunt, she might well have won when going up against Sunak in the membership round.

The difference now of course between this contest and the one three months earlier is that much more of a premium is being placed on competence by MPs. After the disastrous experience of Liz Truss, many are reluctant to choose another unorthodox candidate. It is significant therefore that Mordaunt has signalled she will retain Jeremy Hunt as Chancellor if she wins. According to the Daily Mail, the Portsmouth MP held talks in the Treasury with Hunt today and assured him that he would deliver the Halloween budget as planned if she wins. That promise will likely appeal to some undecideds in Mordaunt's own party and reassure the international markets, calmed last week after Hunt's appointment heralded the abandonment of the mini-Budget.