The latest immigration figures published by the ONS today, for the calendar year 2011, show net migration falling for the first time under the coalition – but nowhere near fast enough to give ministers confidence that they will hit their target by 2015.
The ONS estimates that immigration last year fell by 25,000, and emigration rose by 11,000, resulting in a drop in net migration of 36,000 – from 252,000 to 216,000. This is in line with my earlier prediction, though the ONS warn that the fall is not statistically significant, and the target of 100,000 still looks a long way away.
It is worth noting that despite ministers’ rhetoric, by far the largest contribution to the fall is due to the comings and goings of British citizens: British net migration was down by 28,000, while by comparison net migration from outside the EU was down by only 13,000 – and EU net migration actually rose by a few thousand.
In terms of the different kinds of migration, the figures show numbers of overseas students falling for the first time in several years – the first visible effects of the coalition’s policy changes in this area – while numbers of working migrants have continued their steady decline since 2007. The latest figures for the number of visas issued, which are more up to date (covering the year to the end of June) indicate further falls in both categories, again as expected. Whether this is a good thing, particularly in relation to student numbers, is a different question.
Tackling abuse of student visas is obviously a sensible policy; but conflating this with the net migration target is not, especially given the temporary nature of student migration – as I argued here. The juxtaposition of today’s figures with the announcement that London Metropolitan University has had its licence to teach overseas students revoked – potentially leading to the deportation of thousands of legitimate students as well as illegitimate ones – will have done nothing to reassure universities about what is really driving policy in this area.
The trends in student and work visas are likely to show up in a further fall in net migration in 2012, though the nature of the target ministers have chosen – overall net migration – means that these trends could still be offset by the movements of British and EU citizens, which they cannot control. And the biggest driver of migration is not government policy but relative economic conditions: hidden in today’s figures is a rise in immigration from Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece – another example of the UK being a 'safe haven' from the Euro crisis, albeit one less likely to be seized on by Conservative ministers. Indeed, they find themselves in the perverse position that their best chance of hitting their target is if the UK experiences a prolonged economic downturn. They might be tempted to highlight the fall in the number of new National Insurance numbers issued to migrants, down 15% to the end of March: this might seem to offer reassurance to those who fear that immigration is exacerbating our unemployment problems. But a broader look at the trends in NINOs (in Figure 2.4 on p.11) suggests a closer relationship with the double dip in the UK economy than with any changes in immigration policy.
Overall, today’s figures remind us that while controlling immigration is clearly a legitimate policy objective, the crudeness of the net migration target brings a number of risks. The first is that this will be seen as another example of politicians promising what they can't deliver – feeding disillusionment rather than 'taking the heat out of the issue' as David Cameron has said he wants to do. The second risk is that as we approach the next election and the target remains out of reach, ministers will attempt more drastic reductions in work and study from outside the EU, simply because those are the easiest categories to control, and despite the fact that they are the kinds of immigration most likely to help our return to growth – as well as being the kinds which surveys show the public are least bothered about.
What about Labour? Their response to today’s figures has been to jump on the lack of progress against the net migration target, but they should really leave this to the government’s critics in the media. The figures for 2012 and 2013 are likely to show significant falls, comparing favourably to Labour’s record in voters’ eyes, even if not enough to hit the target. Labour would do better to pursue the more imaginative line suggested by Ed Miliband’s speech in June. For too long both main parties have played along with the misleading view that the big question on immigration is how to restrict the supply of foreign workers coming in to the country. This view fails to make anxious voters confront the deeper truth that immigration is more often the symptom of our problems than the cause. The real question is why so many employers prefer to hire foreign-born workers over those already here, particularly over the young unemployed. It’s not the supply of immigration that’s the problem, but the demand. We know the Conservative answer to this question: cut benefits, which they argue will give the unemployed more incentive to compete with immigrants for low-paid jobs. Miliband’s speech was the first serious attempt to set out a distinctive Labour answer: that it is the nature of our economic model, rather than our feckless or welfare-dependent youth, that encourages employers to prefer foreign-born workers. Foreign workers are more willing to fill jobs that are temporary, low-paid, with bad conditions, and no training or career progression – and these are the jobs which the UK economy has become good at creating.
Which of these answers will voters prefer? It’s hard to say: both have their attractions. But this is the debate we should be having, rather than obsessing about the overall level of net migration from one quarter to the next.
Matt Cavanagh is a visiting fellow at IPPR.