Luhansk and Donetsk to hold ‘referendums’ on joining Russia

Authorities in the Russian-occupied Luhansk and Donetsk regions of Ukraine have announced that both would hold referendums on formally joining the Russian Federation this coming weekend. Although the breakaway states of the Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republic (LPR and DPR respectively) have been controlled by Putin-loyal separatists, they have technically remained semi-autonomous. Similar announcements about a referendum have been made in the recently-invaded regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

Russia, of course, has welcomed the decision – the Chairman of the State Duma Vycheslav Volodin declared its readiness to provide Luhansk and Donetsk with total support. Putin is due to give an address to the nation on the subject this evening. In the media, the move to absorb these regions into Russia is being presented as a show of strength. On his Telegram channel ‘Logika Markova’, former Putin advisor Sergei Markov said the referendums have been called because the local population wants the full might of Russia’s protection following ‘fears of Ukrainian repression such as in Izyum and Balakliya’. Unsurprisingly there is no mention of Russian war crimes that have recently been uncovered in both Ukrainian-reclaimed areas. According to Markov, the referendums are a sign that the populations of the LPR and DPR want to be annexed by Russia just as Crimea was. Kremlin propagandist and RT editor-in-chief Margarita Simonyan also celebrated the decision, saying it ‘untied Russia’s hands’ to widen the scale of the war and allow it to properly threaten Nato with retaliation for Ukrainian attacks.

The fate and supposed security of the LPR and DPR have been tied into Russia’s warmongering from the start: after declaring themselves independent of Ukraine in 2014, Russia recognised them as independent states on 21 February this year, just five days before launching their full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The invasion itself has repeatedly been justified by Putin as a ‘special operation’ to protect the regions’ residents from Ukrainian ‘fascism’.

But is this really the show of strength and might the Russian state want it to seem? These referendums come following several weeks of huge setbacks for the Russian army. Ukraine has been able to retake over 3,000 square kilometres of territory and senior Putin loyalists, including Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, have openly criticized the Russian army’s performance.

The Kremlin’s desire to rapidly absorb the LPR and DPR suggest that it is more rattled by Ukraine’s advances than it would like. The Russian armed forces are depleting quickly, with the Kremlin resorting to relying on mercenaries like the Wagner Group and recruitment from prisons to bolster their numbers. Annexing Luhansk and Donetsk would bring both regions under Russian legal jurisdiction, allowing the Kremlin to mine them for would-be recruits.

These referendums would also, by expanding Russian territory, create a basis for the Kremlin to launch attacks, including potentially deploying nuclear weapons, under the guise of self-defense. In recent weeks, Russian rhetoric regarding the ‘special operation’ has changed to more explicitly refer to a war against Nato. But whether this sabre-rattling will translate into any substantial action is unclear. 

Ukraine’s strikes on Crimea, and Russia’s failure to follow through on threats to retaliate show that the Kremlin is not in a position to adequately defend the territory it has invaded. Just today it has also been reported that the Russian navy’s submarines stationed in the Crimea have been moved to the Krasnodai Krai within Russia to shield them from further Ukrainian attacks. As the Institute for the Study of War argues, the official annexation of Luhansk and Donetsk will lump Putin with a promise he is unlikely to be able to deliver on.

Voting for the referendums opens on 23 September and last until the 27th. It is expected that the results will be rigged in Russia’s favour. Whether this leads Putin to escalate the war remains to be seen. The longer he continues to experience setbacks, the more unpredictable and dangerous he is likely to become.