US lockdowns wipe out decades of maths and reading progress

In Britain, the damage of lockdown was easily covered up by grade inflation: with 45 per cent of A Level students being given A or A*. In the United States, there are large-scale independent studies published today. It’s pretty devastating. Educational performance scores for nine-year-olds have fallen to levels last seen in 1999: so two decades of progress wiped out. It’s the first time on record that performance in maths has fallen at all, and reading ability fell further than it has at any point in the last 30 years. 

There were big differences between racial groups. In maths, white children’s scores only fell five points whilst black students fell 13 points – more than double the drop experienced by white kids. The New York Times reports research showing schools in predominantly black and hispanic areas stayed shut during lockdowns for longer – explaining the greater drop.

In larger cities, where low income and non-white children are more likely to live, schools remained shut much longer. The scale of the drop for black students has to be seen to be believed. As the below graph shows, a staggering 28 years of educational progress was lost in black nine-year-olds. This reversal in progress will have profound effects and follow these children for the rest of their lives.

It’s not the only bit of pandemic-related bad news to hit America this week. Figures published yesterday show life expectancy across the pond fell to its lowest level since 1996. The average American born today can expect to live 76 years. Had they been born in 2020 it would have been 79. Covid only accounted for half the decline between 2020 and 2021, but across the pandemic, when wider effects were included, it accounted for some 74 per cent of the fall. Heart and liver disease were significant factors.

There aren’t directly comparable education figures in the UK. But the National Reference Test, released with GCSE results last week shows drops in maths and english scores here too – though on a much smaller scale than the US.

The Key Stage 2 tests (given at the end of primary schools in England) showed drops in five key areas with 59 per cent of children are meeting the expected standards in reading, writing and maths compared with 65 per cent before lockdowns. But the decline in the teacher-marked KS2 tests, while worrying, is far milder than that shown in the independent US tests. They are, of course, not directly comparable.

More data is due out in the next few weeks on obesity and life expectancy. But given how strict and long our lockdowns and school closures were, there’s no reason to believe trends will be any different to those seen in the US.