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    Live: Tugendhat and Mordaunt bullish about second round chances

    Live: Tugendhat and Mordaunt bullish about second round chances
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    Eight candidates have managed to reach the threshold of 20 nominations from Tory MPs. Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss, Penny Mordaunt, Tom Tugendhat, Kemi Badenoch, Jeremy Hunt, Suella Braverman and Nadhim Zahawi progress to the next stage of the leadership contest, while Sajid Javid and Rehman Chishti have dropped out of the race. The first ballot of Tory MPs takes place on Wednesday. Any contenders who receive fewer than 30 votes will be eliminated from the competition. 

    11.06am Tugendhat has the wind in his sails

    James Forsyth writes... The Tugendhat campaign is bullish this morning, very confident that they’ll easily pass the 30-vote threshold needed to proceed to the second round.

    The Mordaunt camp are understandably confident, given that they pretty much have the numbers in public declarations. But as one member of it remarks to me, until we see some real numbers after the first ballot it will be hard to tell what the rest of the race looks like.

    How the race unfolded yesterday:

    6.53pm Contenders battle to be the ‘stop Rishi’ candidate

    Isabel Hardman writes... There is definitely a current in this contest of MPs wanting to stop a certain candidate getting to the final two – echoing the 2016 race and the 2019 competition with Boris Johnson. Truss is now being sold as the best ‘stop Rishi’ candidate, and part of that is her appeal to the right of the party. But there remains a big split in the vote on this wing: Kemi Badenoch and Suella Braverman are in the frame, too. And there is an energetic ‘stop Truss’ contingent of backbenchers too. What had looked like a fun run is now turning into a very aggressive race. Sign up to the Evening Blend here.

    6.44pm Did ‘dark arts’ save Jeremy Hunt?

    Steerpike writes... Jeremy Hunt has made it through to the next stage of the Tory leadership contest, but there are murmurings that ‘dark arts’ ensured he made the nominations threshold. It has been suggested that Gavin Williamson on Team Rishi could have loaned a few of Sunak’s nominations to Hunt, to ensure a candidate less popular with Tory members stayed in the race. Culture Secretary and Boris ally Nadine Dorries (who is not exactly a fan of Sunak) certainly thinks this could be the case, writing: ‘This is dirty tricks/a stitch up/dark arts. Take your pick. Team Rishi want the candidate they know they can definitely beat in the final two and that is Jeremy Hunt’. As the nominations are kept secret, we will never know which MPs backed Hunt. But the blue on blue fighting is a sure sign than this race isn’t getting any less toxic…

    6.15pm The next challenge for the contenders

    James Forsyth writes... There will be eight candidates on the ballot tomorrow. Sajid Javid, the former Health Secretary, has pulled out of the race as Grant Shapps did this morning, while Priti Patel decided not to stand. There is no word as yet on who Javid will back. Shapps has backed Sunak, and Patel is said to be deciding between Truss and Zawahi.

    The next challenge for these eight is to get 30 votes in this ballot so they can proceed to the next round. Sunak already has more than that number of public supporters while Penny Mordaunt is extremely close. Truss and Tugendhat will also be extremely confident of hitting that number. It will be rather more touch and go for the other candidates.

    Voting concludes tomorrow at 3.30pm and we should get the result fairly soon after that. The 1922 have had quite a lot of counting experience recently.

    6.04pm Eight MPs make it through to the next round

    In total eight of the ten contenders have made made it through to the next round of the Tory leadership contest. Rishi Sunak,  Liz Truss, Penny Mordaunt, Tom Tugendhat, Kemi Badenoch, Jeremy Hunt, Suella Braverman and Nadhim Zahawi have all managed to meet the threshold of 20 nominations in time. Only Sajid Javid and Rehman Chishti fell short at this stage.

    5.55pm Sajid Javid goes

    Isabel Hardman writes... Sajid Javid has dropped out of the Tory leadership contest with minutes to go before the announcement of who has secured enough nominations. He said: 

    'Serving in Government is a true privilege. It has been just seven days since I took the difficult decision to resign from the most important job I have ever had, as Health Secretary during a pandemic. Since then, I have set out the values and policies I think are right for the future of our great country. I believe the party must now look outwards, not inwards, if we are to win again. There is an abundance of both ideas and talent in our party. One of the candidates will be given the honour of becoming Prime Minister. I look forward to seeing the debate unfold and to see colleagues working together as a united Conservative Party once the leadership election is concluded.'

    As I said last night, it wasn’t entirely clear what his specific pitch to the party was: everyone was in favour of tax cuts. The main line seemed to be integrity, with Javid pointing out he was the first – just – to quit Boris Johnson's cabinet. If you care about that, you're probably going to go for someone like Jeremy Hunt or Tom Tugendhat who didn't go into the cabinet in the first place.

    5.30pm Rehman Chishti drops out

    Rehman Chishti has pulled out of the leadership race ahead after failing to secure any endorsements from fellow MPs. His announcement comes 30 minutes before nominations close. In a statement, he said: 'I have not been able to secure the required amount. of nominations to formally enter the race.' He said he would now 'carefully look' at the other candidates to see 'how they relate' to his values and vision. Read the full list of who's still in the race and who's backing whom here.

    4.20pm Boris blocks a no-confidence vote  

    Labour were hoping to hold a no-confidence vote on Boris Johnson to prevent him staying in office until 5 September, when the next Tory leader takes over. That appears to be no longer the case. Boris Johnson’s government has refused to give up parliamentary time for Labour’s motion tomorrow, which Labour says breaks parliamentary convention. The government says, however, that it has given Labour the opportunity to table a simple no-confidence vote in the government, but instead Labour want a vote on Boris Johnson too, which would not be a valuable use of parliamentary time because he is stepping down. The government says if Labour amend their motion the debate could be tabled for the next parliamentary day.

    3:45pm What do voters want in their next prime minister?

    Steerpike writes… It’s the question all Tory MPs are asking: who will help them save their seats? With less than three hours to go until nominations close, anxious backbenchers are conspiring with ministers to ensure that their favoured candidates go through. Fortunately Mr S has obtained his hands on some exclusive polling which could aid them in their plotting. A survey by Redfield and Wilton of 1,500 voters – including 518 Tory voters from 2019 – shows a clear preference for change.

    Some 43 per cent of all voters want someone who did not serve in Johnson’s government, compared to just 20 per cent who do. Of the 2019 Tories though, opinion changes, with 30 per cent saying they do want a Johnson minister compared to 25 per cent who don’t and 45 per cent who say it doesn’t matter. Unsurprisingly, 46 per cent of 2019 Tories also want someone who ‘views Margaret Thatcher as a role model’ compared to 25 per cent who don’t. A fresh-faced Thatcherite with ministerial experience? Who could they have in mind?

    The poll was conducted on Thursday. Good luck to MPs making up their minds…

    3:40pm Nominations to remain largely private ahead of first round ballot

    James Forsyth writes...When nominations close tonight, we will only get who has proposed and seconded each candidate. The other 18 names will remain private, though the 1922 Committee will obviously check that no one has nominated more than one candidate.

    2:51pm Who will Patel’s backers nominate?

    James Forsyth writes... Priti Patel is not running for the Tory leadership. Patel does not say who she is going to back herself. But the speculation is that it will be either Nadhim Zahawi or Liz Truss rather than Braverman, her rival for the support of the ERG. Read James’s full blog here. 

    1:55pm Patel decides not to stand

    Priti Patel has announced that she is not standing to be the next Tory leader. In a statement she writes:

    ‘I am grateful for the encouragement and support colleagues and Party members have offered me in recent days in suggesting that I enter the contest for the leadership of the Conservative Party. I will not be putting my name forward for the ballot of MPs.’

    1:40pm ConHome poll makes uncomfortable reading for Sunak 

    ConservativeHome has just released a new poll of Tory members, looking at how the leadership contenders would fare in the last stage of the contest, when Conservative members choose between the last two candidates. The results don’t look particularly pretty for Rishi Sunak. According to the poll, Sunak would lose against Badenoch, Mordaunt, Truss, Zahawi and Braverman if he faced any of these candidates in the final stage. He would win against Javid, Hunt and Tugendhat. Obviously a lot could change before the final votes are cast, but Sunak will clearly be hoping he faces one of the latter candidates in the final round.

    1:00pm Kemi's toilet stunt

    Steerpike spots that... makeshift signs saying 'men' and 'ladies' have been added to gender neutral toilet doors at Kemi Badenoch's campaign launch. It's an apparent dig another candidate in the race: Penny Mordaunt, who previously told the House of Commons from the despatch box last year that 'trans men are men and trans women are women.' You can see the pictures for yourself here.

    12:50pm Rishi's 'sleek' pitch

    Kate Andrews writes... Rishi Sunak has a reputation for his sleek and snazzy presentation. His leadership launch this morning was in character: the air-conditioning was on full blast as young activists lined up with their ‘Ready For Rishi!’ signs, next to heavily-branded backdrops. And the guest list was long. MPs in attendance included many who had already declared for Sunak: Bim Afolami, Claire Coutinho, Helen Whately, and Liam Fox, to name a few.

    But is his tax cut pledge enough to rally more Tory MPs to his cause? Kate Andrews has the details on Coffee House...

    12:40pm The big question over Kemi's bid

    Katy Balls writes... Kemi Badenoch has just completed her leadership launch. Although she is an outside bet, her campaign has momentum after Michael Gove endorsed her and she came a narrow second in a ConservativeHome poll on who should be the next Tory leader. 

    As for her pitch, Badenoch was all too happy to put clear blue water between herself and Boris Johnson, saying politicians ought to be honest that people can’t have their cake and eat it. She also said a candidate's judgement rather than their views on tax ought to be the defining issue in the contest. 

    In the Q&A that followed, I asked her what Badenoch’s response was to critics who say she is just too inexperienced and it would be irresponsible for her to enter 10 Downing Street. She replied that no one had put her in cabinet but she had been there and willing. She said that her work as a junior minister and the fact she has balanced different briefs shows she can do it. But this still remains the biggest question mark over her bid. 

    Read Katy Ball's full article on Badenoch's launch here.

    12:35pm Tugendhat’s problem

    James Heale writes... It’s a manic morning in Westminster with no fewer than three campaign launches. Over at Number Four Millbank, military man Tom Tugendhat opted to stress themes about cost-of-living and levelling up – a sensible choice given he is best known for his chairmanship of the Foreign Affairs Committee. Tugendhat’s speech emphasised policy and personal integrity, and while there were signs of nerves in front of the assembled press pack, he performed competently enough. Jake Berry, the Northern Research Group chairman, was nodding along as his candidate talked about new technical institutions and addressing regional inequality. There are more than 40 ‘Red Wall’ MPs fearing Labour’s challenge to their seats: pitching to these freshmen Tories could set Tugendhat apart from Penny Mordaunt and Jeremy Hunt with whom he seems more aligned. 

    The problem for Tugendhat is that won’t be enough if he hopes to make it to the later stages of a leadership race. The Tonbridge MP will need a spark of magic if he’s to change the dynamics of the contest: on today’s evidence that was in short supply.

    12:30pm Kemi speaks her truth

    'It's time to tell the truth,' said Kemi Badenoch at the launch of her Tory leadership bid this morning. 'For too long, politicians have been telling us that we can have it all: have your cake and eat it. And I'm here to tell you that is not true. It never has been.'

    You can read the full text of her speech here.

    12.15pm Sky News's Beth booed at Rishi launch

    Steerpike writes... Sky News's Beth Rigby was heckled after she said Rishi Sunak was a 'corrosive' figure. Here's the video of what happened:

    11:55am Rishi's non-Dom campaign

    Kate Andrews writes... A short but tough Q&A for Rishi Sunak, who was asked by the press if he's too divisive even within his own party to become prime minister. Sunak responded by pointing out he was currently surrounded by colleagues and friends. He was also asked if he was Dominic Cummings's candidate in the race. Sunak responded that Cummings 'has had absolutely nothing to do with this campaign.' He also said he had 'not communicated with Dominic Cummings since the day he left Downing Street.'

    11:50am Rishi's warm words for Boris

    Rishi was full of praise for Boris Johnson in his speech this morning. Here's what the ex-chancellor had to say about his old boss:

    'I will have no part in a rewriting of history that seeks to demonise Boris, exaggerate his faults or deny his efforts. We know his achievements: breaking the Brexit deadlock, winning a stunning election victory, rolling out a world-class vaccination programme and standing up for a free Ukraine when other leaders were still wringing their hands.'

    You can read the full text of his speech here.

    11:45am Kemi's big pitch

    Kemi Badenoch is also launching her campaign this morning. Badenoch says her key selling point is that: 'I am not the sort of person you can sideline, silence or cancel'.

    11:35am Rishi races ahead

    Here are the latest standings in the Tory leadership race:

    11:20am Sunak's 'grown up' pitch

    Kate Andrews writes... Rishi Sunak's leadership launch kicks off with some notable guests, including Dominic Raab – who introduced Sunak as 'the next prime minister' – and Grant Shapps, who was (very) briefly running a leadership bid of his own. Sunak is putting great emphasis on having 'grown-up conversations' with the public, a term that's been used several times so far in his speech, once again drawing distinction between other leadership candidates promising immediate and substantial tax cuts. Here are some of the key quotes:

    'We need to have a grown up conversation about where we are, how we got here and what we intend to do about it.'

    'I have a plan to steer our economy through these headwinds. We need a return to traditional conservative economic values, and that’s means honesty and responsibility. Not fairy tales.'

    'I want to have a grown-up conversation where I can tell you the truth. A better future is not given, but earned.'

    11:25am Tugendhat fires the starting pistol

    Tom Tugendhat has also kicked off his campaign this morning. The Tory leadership hopeful said:

    'We need a clean start. For me, that is more than a slogan or a catchphrase. It is a mission statement.'

    11:20am Rishi reveals his plan

    Rishi Sunak says his plan if he wins the Tory leadership election will be to: 'Tackle inflation, grow the economy and cut taxes'.

    11:15am Sunak backs Boris

    Rishi Sunak has kicked off his campaign launch with some warm words for Boris Johnson. The ex-Chancellor, who quit the cabinet last week in protest over the PM's leadership, said Johnson was 'remarkable' and that he 'has a good heart'.

    11:10am Truss wins Mogg's backing

    Katy Balls writes... As three leadership launches get underway, one other campaign is making good progress when it comes to MP support. Liz Truss has today won the backing of two Johnson loyalists in the form of Jacob Rees-Mogg and Nadine Dorries. Confirming reports in the Times, the pair gave an interview outside Downing Street: 

    Dorries insists that Truss - despite backing Remain in the EU referendum - is as strong a Brexiteer ‘as either of us’. While both are divisive figures, their support is a boost for Truss - she is courting the right of the party and needs to face off criticism that she lacks the Brexiteer credentials.