Is the Boris campaign losing momentum?

Is the Boris campaign losing momentum? The former prime minister’s supporters had briefed journalists that Johnson has 100 MPs backing him so can enter the race should he wish to. But the number of MPs who have publicly backed Johnson is much lower at 59, vs Rishi Sunak's 131 (and a lonely 24 for Penny Mordaunt). That means either there are a lot of Boris backers who are very shy - or that the claim is inaccurate and he's facing an uphill struggle to hit the threshold.

Johnson supporters have been keen to suggest that the bulk of Sunak's support comes from the left of the party – ergo meaning Sunak can’t be a unifier. But there are signs that this is changing. Lord Frost, his former ally, has endorsed Sunak as Steve Baker and David Davis, both arch Brexiteers. The Spectator’s Charles Moore has written a piece for the Telegraph saying now is the time for Sunak rather than Johnson. This evening Tory rising star and darling of the grassroots Kemi Badenoch has said she is supporting Sunak, who officially declared he candidacy this morning. This is notable as during the summer leadership contest, he was a key supporter of Mordaunt (who doesn't look as if she'll hit the 100 needed to qualify).

Remember, about 150 MPs have not declared: their votes will have to go somewhere, so it’s still possible that Johnson has 100 MPs backing him. The European Research Group meets on Monday to discuss who they will back. If Johnson hits 100 and reaches the membership, his supporters believe the Tory grassroots will back him over Sunak. Suella Braverman is expected to endorse a candidate tomorrow – if, as rumoured, that candidate is Boris Johnson then it will give him a boost. Nadhim Zahawi, who only a few months ago asked Boris to resign for the sake of the country, now wants him back.

But what is increasingly clear is that Johnson’s comeback is failing to convince some of the people who he would have hoped to have rallied behind him. If Johnson does push on with his bid and find a way back to 10 Downing Street, he will have to govern a party where many of the MPs do not support his return. It’s why some are asking whether Johnson could choose not to push – senior Tories are urging him to come to an agreement with Sunak for the good of the party. However, after meeting with the former chancellor last night, there is little sign that Johnson plans to step aside. He has told his supporters this morning that he will keep going as he is the only candidate with a democratic mandate. Johnson will not go without a fight.