Is Lithuania next on Putin’s hitlist?

For countries bordering Russia, Putin’s war on Ukraine raises a disturbing question: might they be next? A bill put forward to the Duma’s lower house on June 8 suggests Lithuania is in the country’s sights. If passed, the proposal by MP Evgeniy Fedorov could see Russia potentially try to lay claim to Lithuania's territory.

Bonkers and alarming in equal measure, it seems that, not content with focussing on the war it started in Ukraine, some factions of the Russian government are already setting their sights further afield.

Harking back to the dying days of the USSR, Fedorov’s bill argues that the decision to recognise Lithuania’s independence in 1991 was made ‘illegally’ by president Mikhail Gorbachev because the committee that helped him decide was ‘unconstitutional’. The proposed bill goes on to state that, as Lithuania did not hold an independence referendum as the Soviet Union fell apart, it violated its law and ‘illegitimately’ became a republic.

Were it not for the present situation, Fedorov’s bill and its justification would seem a farcical stretch of reality. However, since the outbreak of war in Ukraine in February, panicked speculation has been rife as to just how far Putin might go to ‘denazify’ and reclaim Eastern Europe for himself.

This question has been central to much of the way the Western powers have approached their support of Ukraine in their fight. Lithuania, one of the most hawkish anti-Putin Nato members, could reasonably be considered within Putin’s range.

So what is going on? Is this a serious representation on behalf of the Kremlin? Or the absurd posturing of a floundering state or rogue MP?

Fedorov belongs to the ‘United Russia’ party, known for not doing much besides supporting the policies of Putin, who, despite not officially being their leader, is essentially considered as such.

Explaining himself to journalists afterwards, Fedorov said that his proposal was designed to be the first step in forcing Lithuania out of Nato. Citing a clause in the alliance’s treaty that requires member states to resolve all territory disputes before joining, Fedorov confidently proclaimed this would force the organisation - and bizarrely the US in particular - to reconsider Lithuania’s membership.

He said: ‘The US will be presented with a strong legal case to, for example, expel Lithuania from Nato - after all, they are constantly declaring that they are interested in the fastest way to resolve any conflict. At the same time, this law will grant Russia the legal basis to resolve the situation which has occurred in the post-Soviet space, as well as questions about the membership of former Soviet republics in Nato.’

Elaborating on his proposal this week, he proclaimed that his designs for Lithuania were just the start of a bigger plan. While Lithuania posed the most danger to Russia because of its proximity to the satellite province of Kaliningrad, he said, Latvia, Estonia and Ukraine could be next.

Tellingly, later on the same day that Fedorov proposed his bill to the Russian parliament, the Kremlin made the unusual move of releasing a statement distancing itself from it.

‘We are not aware of this initiative’, said Dmitri Peskov, Putin’s press secretary, in comments to the state news agency TASS. Nevertheless, at the time of writing, they’ve yet to shoot down Fedorov’s grand plans for the rest of the Baltic States or kill the bill in the Duma.

Lithuania is taking the threat seriously. Branding Russia a ‘state ruled by beasts’, Lithuanian foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said Lithuania must be ready to react accordingly and defend themselves, whether politically, diplomatically or by ‘other means’.

But is the Kremlin actually serious about this? There is every possibility the Duma will pass the bill, and that further bills retracting the recognition of other states’ independence are submitted. That Nato would seriously consider kicking Lithuania, or any other country, out of the alliance on this basis, though, seems highly improbable.

But it would be foolish to completely rule out the possibility of Putin using this as grounds on which to take any military action against Lithuania. Whether or not this is a peek behind the Kremlin’s curtain, it's a timely reminder that Putin is unlikely to stop this war of his own accord.