Ireland votes no, now what’s next?

1) This was a vote against the Treaty, and against deeper EU integration

This was indeed a vote against deeper integration.  The political class are already spinning that it was stuff about abortion, an unpopular government – all the same old claims.  But look at the polls and the top reasons for voting no – they are all perfectly reasonable.  Here is the list of the top reasons from the last Irish Times poll

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“Can you tell me why you have decided to vote no on the Lisbon Treaty?”

30% I don’t know what I’m voting for/ don’t understand it

24% To keep Ireland’s power and identity

22% To safeguard Ireland’s neutrality

17% Don’t like being told what to do/ forced into voting yes

12% Bigger countries will have too much power

Nor did the no campaign benefit from a small turnout.  50% voted in the referendum, and the polls show that the yes voters were more likely to turn out than the no voters (The Irish Times poll found 85% of the yes voters were likely to vote versus only 81% of the no voters). 

2) What next?

i) Gordon Brown has put himself in a horrific position by phoning Sarkozy to promise to continue to ratify.  The third reading in the Lords is next Wednesday (18 June).  Can he get through six days of looking so arrogant? Or will Jack Straw et al pull the plug? Even if public pressure does not force Brown to pull it, will the Liberal  Democrats lend him the necessary votes to get it through, at the risk of being tarred with the same brush?

ii) We and others are calling for a referendum.  Life will now return to that call.  How will the Government reply now?  After the French and Dutch no votes, the Government said the treaty was dead, so no need for a referendum.  But this time that won’t wash given they are going ahead with ratification.

iii) What will happen at the European Council next Thursday and Friday? The whole Irish political establishment are refusing to accept the result on TV today and are clearly determined to press on.  Germany, France - and seemingly the UK - will be saying press ahead.  The Czechs and other “smalls” like Denmark may not be so keen. What will they see as their options?

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-- Just a new “declaration” for Ireland and another referendum

-- Another rebranding of the same treaty.  “Treaty of Dublin” anyone? -- Do most of the things in the treaty by vote in the Council and then a mini treaty for the core institutional stuff. -- The same as above, but put the institutional changes into the Croatian Accession Treaty to give it air cover and link it to enlargement. -- Just more salami slicing and a return to the “Europe of Results” rhetoric.

The Presidency schedule is really interesting. France hold it in the second half of this year (starting in two weeks time). They will want to up the pace over the next six months because in the first half of 2009 the Czechs are in charge, and in the second half the Swedes - both are far more sceptical.

iv) This could now turn into an election issue.  How long will it take for the European political class to come up with a new treaty or a second referendum?  Probably too long to get it through before the next election. But it may be at just the right time to make it an election issue…

Neil O’Brien is Director of Open Europe