Katy Balls
Will there be a revolt on the Tory right?
What is the point of Liz Truss's government? Expect more MPs to ask that question today after Jeremy Hunt's statement tearing up the not-so-mini Budget. The new chancellor has just announced in an address that he will be scrapping every tax cut in Truss and her then-chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng's fiscal event bar the reversal of the national insurance hike and the cut to stamp duty. Both would have been particularly tricky to row back from given stamp duty has already happened and the NI hike has already been legislated for – with MPs voting last week. The energy support package has also been watered down.
In his message to the public – and the markets – Hunt pressed the need for economic stability. He suggested the income tax cut was off the table indefinitely – until the public finances allowed. Hunt said the package of changes would mean an extra £32 billion per year for the Treasury, but given the financial black hole more difficult decisions would be needed. To say this is humiliating for Truss would be an understatement. The Prime Minister has had to reverse ferret on her flagship economic programme. The only significant campaign pledge that has survived is the reversal of the national insurance hike. For all the talk from Truss and Kwarteng about taking on the Treasury orthodoxy, the orthodoxy is back and the Treasury hold more power over policy decisions than before Truss entered.
So, how will today's screeching U-turn land with the different audiences? Hunt moved now to calm the markets – and the tentative early signs this morning on gilt yields suggests it is having at least some of the desired effect. But what about MPs? The calculation in the Truss camp is that it's the left of the party that currently poses the greatest threat to her position. These MPs have the potential to rally around a candidate like Rishi Sunak. By bringing in Hunt and reversing many of these measures, Truss appears to have bought a little time with this wing of the party. One Nation Tory Damian Green – a close ally of Hunt – suggested on the airwaves this morning that Truss should be given time (even if he used the interview to also push for his own changes to supply side reform).
But what about a revolt on the right? Supporters of Truss believe the right of the party doesn't have many places to go. Would they get behind a candidate like Suella Braverman? Would Boris Johnson really mount a comeback now? Yet this is the group of MPs who are likely to take greatest issue with today's announcement. These MPs – many of whom are in cabinet – backed Truss on the promise of delivery and tax cuts. Several of them ran on their own platform promising tax cuts. They defended the growth plan only for the government to U-turn on it. These are the MPs to watch today. In that vein, red wall MP Ben Bradley, who backed Truss for leader, has just gone public to criticise the move: ;Well, that effectively renders all the political fallout, criticism, dive in the polls etc of the last few weeks entirely pointless doesn't it... Right back where we started, just far less popular than before'.