Could Robert Jenrick end up replacing Suella Braverman?

Why did Rishi Sunak reappoint Suella Braverman? Her decision to back him rather than Boris Johnson was probably the most decisive endorsement of the recent campaign – this might well have been done with the understanding that she’d be Home Secretary. But the question now is whether the PM backs her position on immigration.

Braverman’s critics say she is ungovernable, a verbal flame-thrower. Her supporters say this is precisely what’s needed: language and an attitude that matches public concern over the small boats crisis. Her move to the Home Office was accompanied by another significant move: Robert Jenrick put under her as immigration minister. He’s understood to be miffed that he wasn’t in cabinet, but as Sunak’s closest friend in politics it can only be a matter of time.

This morning he has already drawn a dividing line. When asked about Braverman’s description of the small boats issue as an ‘invasion’ he replied, ‘In jobs like mine you have to choose words carefully, and I would never demonise people in search of a better life.’

This might be part of a deliberate good cop/bad copy strategy. Or it might signify that Sunak, having agreed to appoint Braverman in return for her endorsement, does not stand by her language and is using Jenrick to correct it.

Might Jenrick end up taking her job? He’s mild-mannered and calm – unkind souls call him ‘Robert Generic’ – and the opposite to a Patel/Braverman figure. But most Tories also realise they are exposed to public anger over the £7 million a day spent on hotel accommodation for 40,000 illegal arrivals in a country that already digests net migration of 240,000 a year.

It’s a divisive topic. Some see desperate people arriving in search of a better life, others Albanian criminals refusing to play by immigration rules and gaming the system. But everyone sees a system that’s quite clearly in collapse, with 100,000 waiting for asylum applications to be processed and some reports saying cases are being handled at the rate of two per week. It’s rank incompetence and is quickly becoming a proxy for another question: can Sunak govern?