Beware a Tory in a hurry

Liz Truss will not lead the Conservative party into the next general election, despite her rather hesitant claim to the contrary in an interview with the BBC’s Chris Mason. There are probably now fewer than 20 Conservative MPs prepared to go into that contest with Ms Truss, or her alter ego Ann Droid, in charge. So she will be dispensed with, as even she must realise in those moments when a little bit of self-awareness creeps into her psyche. This being so obviously the case means the necessity to dump her at ultra-high speed has oddly receded. 

Jeremy Hunt is in total command of economic policy, sending reassuringly brutal messages to the money markets about his plans for the public finances. As such, there is no overwhelming imperative for Sir Graham Brady and his new 1922 Committee executive to arrange the Truss execution in a hurry. As a former foreign secretary, Truss is acceptably competent and steady on policy towards Ukraine and Russia. She is in no position to propose any radical innovation on any other major issue either – and she knows it.

So, whatever the Daily Mail front page may demand, the key task facing the Brady Bunch is not to do it fast but to get it right. That means arriving at a successor as PM with the best chance of limiting the incoming damage of a general election that will be held at some point in the next two years. If Tory MPs get it wrong this time, inflicting a third extended period of self-obsessed hysteria upon the British public within a single parliamentary term, then a Canadian-style wipe-out will surely result. By contrast, if they choose the right successor and can unite around that figure and embark on a period of cool and steady public administration then 250 or more of them may make it back to SW1.

Given that Truss appears to wish to soak up her current humiliation for as long as possible – presumably hoping to crawl past George Canning’s term in office and thus avoid being the shortest-lived PM ever – there is even a case for letting her go on until next spring. That way she could soak up the opprobrium that will flow from the public to whoever the occupant of 10 Downing Street is. There will be all kinds of bad news that must be endured in the near term: drastically falling living standards, an awful NHS winter crisis, outrage over illegal immigration, rising crime, public expenditure cuts, tax rises. Perhaps Tory MPs will reflect that had they kept their heads they could have had Boris Johnson doing this – and with an outside chance of somehow pulling off a miraculous recovery in his standings.

Now they must make do with Truss taking the punishment or parachute yet another leader straight into this political hell-hole. And this time it will have to be the leader who takes them into their next encounter with the electorate and who must be marketed at it as the strong and stable character Britain needs.

Yesterday, Labour's Clive Efford cracked a joke in the Commons chamber about Truss being kept on display in the manner of Charlton Heston at the end of the movie El Cid. Perhaps, after sober reflection, Sir Graham and other senior Tory MPs will conclude that is a ruse that cannot be stretched into next year. In which case consulting widely with colleagues, formulating a sensible succession plan and implementing it next month is the way to go. Allowing the grand parliamentary flock of headless chickens to squawk their way further towards oblivion next week might prove more damaging.

Do colleagues think their associations would tolerate Sunak after all, given the urgency of the situation? Does Mordaunt’s long record of using the language and approach of the identitarian left on cultural issues altogether disable her? Might Hunt, with his 'breaking it to you gently' conversational style, be as good as it gets?

The visible phase of the impending contest – and there surely will be a contest of some kind – needs to be as brief and civilised as possible. Withdrawing the whip from the next MP who takes to the airwaves to stoke up the atmosphere of crisis, and then arranging his or her deselection, is also a step that is long overdue and something all major figures should be able to unite behind. The Tories were already drinking in the last chance saloon when they dumped Boris Johnson. The bell is ringing for closing time. Sir Graham Brady must now preside over a lock-in that ends in something other than abject disgrace.